“一带一路”背景下中国对东盟蔬菜出口贸易潜力研究

Research on the potential of China's vegetable export to ASEAN under the background of“the belt and road”

通过构建贸易扩展引力模型,分析我国蔬菜对东盟出口贸易影响因素和贸易市场潜力。结果表明:进口区域东盟的人口数量、班轮连通性指数等因素对贸易影响显著,而我国各因素对贸易影响均不显著。“一带一路”倡议等贸易制度因素对出口贸易影响显著。我国蔬菜对东盟出口贸易市场潜力分为巨大型、开拓型、再造型三类,应进一步加大对越南、马来西亚等市场的开拓力度,挖掘新加坡等市场的巨大潜力。

This paper analyzes the influence factors and trade market potential of China's vegetables on ASEAN's export trade by constructing the Gravity model of Trade Expansion.The results show that factors such as the population size and the shift connectivity index of ASEAN in the import region have significant influence on trade,while the influence of various factors on trade in China is not significant.Trade regime factors such as the Belt and Road Initiative have a significant impact on export trade.China's vegetable export trade market potential size is divided into huge type,pioneering type,re-modeling three categories.The development of Vietnam,Malaysia and other markets should further strangthened,as well as huge potential of Singapore and other markets to be tapped.