三峡库区缓倾红层滑坡成因机理及体积预测研究

Study on the formation mechanism and volume prediction of gentle red bed landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir area

以三峡库区9个县(区)30个缓倾红层滑坡为工程实例背景,在总结区域地质条件的基础上,利用数量化理论Ⅲ和优化支持向量机构建滑坡体积预测模型,开展了库区滑坡成因机理研究.结果表明,三峡库区缓倾红层滑坡的成因较为复杂,且滑坡体积的主要影响因素为倾角、物质组成、高差和平均厚度,次要因素为岩性、斜坡坡度和斜坡类型,一般因素为分布高程和坡面形态,但一般影响因素与其他因素间的耦合度较高,其作用不可或缺;体积预测结果的平均相对误差仅为1.87%,具有较高的预测精度,且预测结果较为稳定,验证了预测模型的有效性.

Taking 30 gently dipping red bed landslides in 9 counties(districts)of the Three Gorges Reservoir area as an example,based on the summary of regional geological conditions,the study on the formation mechanism of landslides in the reservoir area is carried out first,and then the prediction model of landslides volume is established by using the quantitative theoryⅢand the optimized support vector mechanism.The results show that the formation cause of the gently dipping red bed landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir area is relatively complex,and the main influencing factors of landslide volume are dip angle,material composition,height difference and average thickness,the secondary factors are lithology,slope gradient and slope type,the general factors are distribution elevation and slope shape,but the coupling degree between the general influencing factors and other factors is high,so its role is indispensable.Meanwhile,the average relative error of the volume prediction results is only 1.87%,which has a high prediction accuracy,and the prediction results are relatively stable,which verifies the validity of the prediction model.