基于模糊软集法的涉恐人员风险分析

Risk Analysis of People Involved in Terrorism Based on Fuzzy Soft Set Method

涉恐人员具有隐蔽性强、风险性高的特点,给暴力恐怖活动的研判、预警和侦查带来了极大挑战。将风险分析的理论引入到反恐预警工作中,从人员特征指标属性的角度,建立基于人口特征、行为特征、环境特征数据的人员涉恐风险评估指标体系,利用区间模糊软集方法研究指标属性的不确定性,构建风险分析决策模型,能够较客观有效地评估涉恐人员的综合状态并给出预警策略参考,为涉恐人员的多种不确定性分析提供统一的理论框架。

People involved in terrorism have the characteristics of strong concealment and high risk,which brings great challenges to the study,judgment,early warning and scout of violent terrorist activities.The risk analysis theory is introduced into the work of antiterrorist early warning.From the perspective of the index attribute of personnel characteristics,a risk assessment index system for people involved in terrorism is established based on the data of population,behavior and environment characteristics.By using the interval fuzzy soft set method,we study the uncertainty of index attributes and construct the risk analysis decision model,which could objectively and effectively assess the comprehensive status of people involved in terrorism and provide a reference for early warning strategies,thus providing a unified theoretical framework for many uncertainty analysis of People involved in terrorism.