地方政府预算绩效管理改革提升了财政支出绩效吗?

Does Local Government Budget Performance Management Reform Improve the Performance of Fiscal Expenditure?

本文总结对比了我国近20年各地方政府预算绩效管理的改革路径与变化规律,并将其视为一项准自然实验,选择基础教育、社会保障、环境保护、基础设施建设四个代表性地方公共支出领域,借助因子分析拟合各领域综合绩效,重点利用PSM—DID方法展开多期地方预算绩效管理改革政策效果评估,在得到相应实证结果及政策系数的基础上,运用Logit离散模型对影响改革政策效果的核心要素进行实证推断,主要研究结论包括:(1)我国地方预算绩效管理改革对财政支出绩效水平的提升呈现出渐进式的特征,未来的持续深化改革十分必要;(2)地方不同公共支出领域的改革政策效果及敏感度变化存在性质、程度与时间上的区别,亟需构建差异化的改革政策;(3)组织与实施方面的要素改革显著提升了基础设施建设领域的政策效果;(4)绩效结果透明度的不断提高对各公共支出领域政策效果的改善皆起到了积极作用。

This article summarizes and compares the timeline and element changes of local budget performance management reform in China in recent 20 years,and treats it as a quasi-natural experiment.Four representative local public expenditure fields,namely basic education,social security,environmental protection and infrastructure construction,are selected to fit the comprehensive performance of each field by factor analysis.The PSM-DID method is used to carry out multi period local budget performance evaluation.On the basis of previous empirical results and policy factors,complete the empirical projection of core policy factors with Logit discrete model.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)the positive role of local budget performance management reform in China is gradually emerging,and the deepening reform in the future should continue to promote;(2)the results show that there are differences in the degree and time of the changes in the effect and sensitivity of the reform policies in different areas of local public expenditure,thus different reform policy should be implemented;(3)the reform of organizational and implementation factors has significantly improved the policy effect in the field of infrastructure construction;(4)the continuous improvement of the transparency of performance results has played a positive role in improving the policy effect in various areas of public expenditure.