从美国联邦巨额债务分析美联储货币政策

Analyzing FED Monetary Policy from the Respective of Huge Federal Debt

2020年新冠疫情后的财政刺激计划急剧扩大了本已高企的联邦财政赤字,美联储承诺从市场无限量购买国债和企业债以稳定企业和家庭的流动性。2018年开始的资产负债表缩减和加息计划急剧转为大幅降息和扩张资产负债表。本文从国债购买日益依赖社会公众、收支缺口扩大、政治经济生态导致的支出刚性等角度开展分析,得出如下结论:美联储维持低利率和资产负债表扩张不是疫情应对的短期举措,将成为一项中长期策略,通货膨胀还不是当前的主要顾虑。

The big fiscal stimulus plan implemented during the pandemic in the year of 2020 sharply increased the previous high federal fiscal deficit.The FED committed to buy treasury and enterprise debt securities from the market to stabilize the solvency of the business and household with no cap.The contract of FED balance sheet and interest rate increase launching in 2018 has sharply turned into sharp rate decrease and balance sheet expansion.The article discussed that the federal debt was held more and more by the public,federal deficit was expanding,the fiscal expenditure was rigid by the political and economic situation in US.With the discussion,the article concluded that FED will keep its low rate and balance sheet expansion in the mid and long term,instead of a short measure to respond the pandemic,the inflation is not its current concern for the time being.