高危害交通事故形态及致因的灰色分析

Grey analysis of form and cause of serious traffic accident

高危害交通事故是指在交通事故统计中造成主要人员伤亡及财产损失的事故,为识别高危害交通事故的主要形态,探寻其致因,提出一种基于灰色理论的分析方法.将道路交通事故危害程度划分为4个灰类,构建4个灰类的白化权函数,通过灰色定权聚类系数确定高危害交通事故的主要形态和致因.以深圳市为例,基于全年交通事故数据,识别出深圳市高危害性交通事故的4类主要形态和6种主要致因.研究表明:车辆碰撞是高危害事故的主要形态,驾驶过程中妨碍安全行车的行为、酒驾以及未保持安全车距等是产生高危害事故的主要原因.针对高危害交通事故的主要形态和致因,提出相应的交通安全管理对策,有利于减少高危害交通事故,提升道路安全水平.

Serious traffic accident causes many casualties and property losses.An analysis method based on grey theory is proposed in order to study the main forms and causes of highly hazardous traffic accidents.The road traffic accident severity is divided into four grey categories,and the whitening weight functions of four grey classes are constructed.The grey theory is used to analyze the form and cause of urban serious traffic accidents.Taken Shenzhen city as an example,four main forms and six main causes of highly hazardous traffic accidents are identified based on the annual traffic accident data.Research shows that vehicle collision is the main form of high hazard accidents and the main causes including the behavior of obstructing safe driving,driving under the influence of alcohol and not keeping a safe distance between vehicles.The corresponding traffic safety management countermeasures are put forward which is conducive to the efficient reduction of traffic accidents and the improvement of road safety level.