官员晋升激励、财政分权与城乡人力资本差距——基于动态空间面板模型的实证研究

Official's Promotion Incentives,Fiscal Decentralization and Urban-Rural Human Capital Gap

基于2000—2017年我国30个省份面板数据,运用动态空间面板模型实证考察了晋升激励、财政分权对城乡人力资本差距的影响及其空间溢出效应。研究发现:我国城乡人力资本差距存在正的空间和时间依赖性。在传统经济绩效考核观下,官员晋升激励在短期内会扩大地区城乡人力资本差距,但从长期看,对地区城乡人力资本差距的影响不显著。地方财权的扩大在短期内会加大地区城乡人力资本差距,而在长期则能有效缩小城乡人力资本差距。在纳入“新型”绩效考核指标后,官员晋升激励不论是在长期还是在短期均能有效缩小地区城乡人力资本差距。在此基础上,提出了完善官员考核与晋升机制、深化财政分权改革、提高农村居民话语权等政策建议。

On the basis of revealing the influence mechanism of promotion incentive and fiscal decentralization on urban-rural human capital gap,this paper uses panel data onto 30 provinces in China from 2000 to 2017 to empirically investigate the influence of promotion incentive and fiscal decentralization on urban-rural human capital gap and its spatial spillover effect.It is shows that the urban-rural human capital gap of China has positive spatial dependence and positive temporal dependence.Under the traditional view of economic performance appraisal,official's promotion incentives will enlarge the regional urban-rural human capital gap in the short term,but it has no significant influence on the regional urban-rural human capital gap in the long term.The improvement of fiscal decentralization will widen the gap of human capital between urban and rural areas in a short term,and effectively narrow the gap of human capital between urban and rural areas in the long term.After the inclusion of"new"performance appraisal indicators,the official's promotion incentives can effectively narrow the regional urban-rural human capital gap in both terms.Some policy suggestions are put forward,such as improving the mechanism of official assessment and promotion,deepening the reform of fiscal decentralization,and enhancing the voice of rural residents.