农户电商销售意愿与行为偏差分析--基于江西省54个县的调查数据

On Deviation Between Willingness and Behavior of Farmers’E-commerce Sales:Based on Survey of 54 Counties in Jiangxi Province

基于江西省54个县(区)363份农户的调查数据,通过构建Logistic回归模型深入分析农户电商销售意愿与行为的偏差问题。结果表明:农户总体及子群体的销售意愿与行为相关程度较低,除受教育年限为12年以上的子群体外,其他相关程度均未超过0.5;不同子群体电商销售意愿与行为一致人数仅占总体的7%~57%;农户及其子群体的电商销售意愿与行为间的偏差较大,且此偏差在性别、年龄、受教育年限、是否参加过电商培训上表现显著;以正一致为参照组,二者的偏差主要是受个人特征、政策感知、网络信息了解程度、电商技术感知有用性、感知易用性及感知风险性的影响;其中,年龄会扩大偏差,其他因素则缩小偏差,是否知道本地有电商协会组织、是否知道农村电商的惠农信贷政策、是否了解网络购物发展信息以及是否了解农村电商发展信息对偏差的影响程度最大。研究结论可以为更好地制定和完善农村电商发展政策,以提升农户电商销售意愿到行为之间的转化提供参考和借鉴。

Based on the survey data of 363 farmers in 54 counties of Jiangxi Province,the logistic regres⁃sion model is constructed to analyze the deviation of the willingness and behavior of farmers’e-commerce sales.Results show that the correlation coefficient between the willingness and behavior of e-commerce sales among farmers in general and subgroups is low,which does not exceed 0.5,except for the subgroup with more than 12 years of education.The proportion of people whose willingness is consistent with the behavior of e-com⁃merce sales in different subgroups of farmers is only 7%to 57%.The deviation between the willingness and be⁃havior of farmers and their subgroups to sell through e-commerce is large,and is significantly affected by such factors including gender,age,education,and whether they have participated in e-commerce training.In addi⁃tion,taking the positive consistency as the reference group,the deviation between the two is primarily influ⁃enced by the factors of individual characteristics,policy perception,knowledge of online information,per⁃ceived usefulness of e-commerce technology,and perceived risks.In particular,the age factor enlarges the de⁃viation while other factors reduce it.Moreover,factors about knowledge of the existence of local e-commerce associations,rural e-commerce credit policies that benefit farmers,information on the development of online shopping and knowledge of rural e-commerce development have significant effects on the deviation of willing⁃ness and behavior.The research conclusions can provide reference for better formulation and improvement of rural e-commerce development policies so as to promote the transformation between farmers’e-commerce sales intention and behavior.