区域水资源-能源-粮食耦合系统和谐评价

Harmony evaluation of regional water-energy-food coupling system

针对水资源-能源-粮食耦合系统和谐可持续发展问题,筛选水资源、能源、粮食系统相关指标,并将模糊多属性决策方法与和谐量化方法相结合,提出基于和谐量化模型的水资源-能源-粮食耦合系统评价指标体系。以河南省2011-2018年水资源-能源-粮食耦合系统发展水平及其和谐程度为依据,分析各子系统与三者耦合系统的时空变化特征。结果表明:8年间全省水资源-能源-粮食耦合系统和谐程度逐年提高;各子系统发展特征不同,但均呈现上升趋势,水资源子系统和谐度提升幅度最大,粮食子系统次之,能源子系统最小;水资源子系统和谐度波动上升,粮食子系统发展水平较高且表现稳定,能源子系统发展存在波动且稳定性较差。基于模糊多属性决策的和谐量化方法不仅能够解决指标量化中的不确定性问题,而且通过耦合系统和谐评价结果,为水资源、能源、粮食综合管理提供依据。

The rapid development of regional economy has brought great pressure on water resource,energy,and food system.Evaluation of water resource,energy,and food is the key to promoting harmonious and sustainable development among the three systems.Chinese consumption of water resource,energy,and food ranks among the top in the world.Still,there are some problems,such as small per capita water resource and large water consumption in food production and energy exploitation.However,the issue of water resource shortage is becoming more and more serious.To promote the sustainable development of resource,it is of practical significance to carry out the harmonious evaluation of water-energy-food coupling system and to study its changing relationship.To evaluate the multi-dimensional coupling system harmoniously,and to reduce the uncertainty of each index from the incomplete data and the subjectivity of evaluation index selection,a comprehensive evaluation index system of water resource,energy,and food based on the harmonious quantification model is proposed.It couples the fuzzy multi-attribute decision-making method with the harmonious quantization method,and the harmonious degree of the water-energy-food coupling system is determined according to the weight of fuzzy language and the harmonious quantification.In addition,the data of Henan Province from 2011 to 2018 are selected to analyze the development level and harmony degree of water-energy-food coupling system,and explore the spatio-temporal variation characteristics of each subsystem and the coupling system.During the study years,the harmony degree of water-energy-food coupling system in the whole province increases annually.In the study years,the improvement of harmony degree in the early stage is mainly affected by the energy system,while the later stage is related to the food system and water resource system.The development characteristics of each subsystem are different,but the whole system presents an upward trend.Due to the improvement of water use efficiency,and the remarkable effect of pollution control,the harmony degree of water resource system fluctuates,which indicates that the state of water resource in Henan Province continues to improve.The harmony degree of the energy system reached the maximum in 2015,and the harmony degree is the best.However,with the change of industrial structure,the total power of rural machinery decreased,and with the increase of urban electricity consumption,the harmony degree of the system become worse,and the overall trend of change is upward,fluctuating,and downward.Because of the upgrading of agricultural technology,the increase of effective irrigation area and other factors,the harmony degree of food system shows a gradual upward trend,and reach the maximum value in 2018.In general,the harmony degree of water resource system in Henan Province is the highest,followed by the food system and the energy system.The food subsystem has a relatively high development level and stable performance,while the energy subsystem has a fluctuating development and poor stability.The harmonious quantization method based on fuzzy multi-attribute decision-making can solve the uncertainty problem in index quantization.Meanwhile,the results can account for complex information and recognize the subtle differences between the indicators,making it easier for decision makers to identify the adverse development factors.The harmonious evaluation of the comprehensive system can support the management of water resource,energy and food system.