俄罗斯经济增长的结构:影响的测度与评估

Estimation and Evaluation: The Structure of Russia’s Economic Growth

该研究分析俄罗斯经济的特点和结构变化,得出经济结构要素对经济增长具有影响的结论。作者采用结构分析的方法,按照支出法、收入法和部门法区分国内生产总值的各个组成部分,确定其对经济增长的贡献,并以此为基础构建经济增长的结构模型。作者认为,只有通过结构性变化和相应的结构性政策才能确保俄罗斯各部门之间,特别是制造业、原材料业和服务业之间的资源流动,形成一种新的经济增长模式。此外,以俄罗斯经济面板数据为基础建立的经济模型反映了不平等、贫困与国内生产总值之间的关系,并确定了经济政策的目的不仅在于为居民提供有针对性的帮助以减少贫困,而且还应采取刺激经济增长的措施以降低不平等。因此,该研究的任务是测度结构对增长率的贡献,为未来提供以某种速度保持经济增长的动态数据。

This study delves into the nature and structural changes in Russia’s economy and concludes that structural factors have impact on Russia’s economic growth.Adopting a structural approach,the author differentiates the contributions of each component of the Russia’s GDP,through expenditure,national income and sectors,to Russia’s economic growth.The paper holds that structural changes and corresponding policies are the only method to secure the flow of resources between Russia’s economic sectors especially fishery,raw materials and service and therefore to develop a new model of economic growth.Apart from the aforementioned contents,the economic modelling based on the panel data selected from Russia’s economic statistics estimated the relationship between inequality,poverty and GDP and defines that Russia’s economic policy should not only be oriented to poverty alleviation by providing individualized aid but also to the reduction of inequality by boosting economic growth.Hence the mission of this study is to estimate the contributions of structural factors behind Russia’s aggregate growth and provide dynamic data to sustain a certain rate of future growth.