信任的滑坡与重建——基于ABM方法的计算社会学解释

The Destruction and Reconstruction of Generalized Trust——A Computational Sociological Explanation Basing on Agent-Based Modelling

信任有助于维系社会稳定、促进经济增长,也对培育转型中国积极健康的社会心态十分重要。市场化进程对一般信任有何影响?首先,本文根据调查数据发现市场化与以"陌生人"为对象的一般信任呈现从"倒U型"向正向关系的过渡。其次,本文使用基于多主体建模与仿真方法发现市场化的推进给交易带来利润和风险的上升,市场化初期缺乏对交易风险的控制,市场化会导致一般信任的下降;当市场交易活动中加入规范性政策对市场交易的风险进行调控时,则市场化会推进一般信任水平的提高。这一发现有利于解释市场化与一般信任从"倒U型"向正向关系的转变。本文使用多主体建模与仿真方法既有助于实现对宏观信任水平的机制解释,也为控制市场交易风险的政策制定提供依据。

To discover the relationship between the marketization and trust,we conducted a national survey.Data shows that the level of marketization and generalized trust targeting"strangers"present a transition from an"inverted U-shape"to a positive relationship.On the basis of agent-based modelling and simulation method,it is found that the advancement of marketization brings increased profits and risks to transactions;in the early stage of marketization development,due to the lack of control over transaction risks,marketization will lead to a decline in generalized trust;when normative policies are incorporated in market trading to regulate the risks of market transactions,marketization will promote the improvement of generalized trust levels.The above finding helps explain the transition from an"inverted U-shape"to a positive relationship between marketization and generalized trust.The adoption of agentbased modeling and simulation method helps explains the mechanisms of generalized trust and providing policy implications of risk control in market transaction.