江汉平原小麦赤霉病发生程度的中期预测

Mid-term prediction of the occurrence of wheat scab in Jianghan Plain

小麦赤霉病的发生与流行严重影响小麦的产量与质量。笔者基于对2001—2019年江汉平原小麦赤霉病的发生等级(Y)、稻桩带菌率(X_(1))以及江汉平原气象资料:气象因子4月上、中旬雨日(X_(2))、4月上、中旬雨量(X_(3))、4月下旬至5月上旬雨日(X_(4))、4月下旬至5月上旬雨量(X_(5)),运用二次多项式逐步回归方法,引入对发生等级作用显著的气象因子,建立回归预测模型。气象预测模型为Y=26.769 7-0.093 4X_(1)-13.006 1X_(2)+0.374 6X_(3)+0.192 8X_(5)+0.001 3X_(1)*X_(1)+0.739 9X_(2)*X_(2)+0.000 9X_(3)*X_(3)-0.017 1X_(4)*X_(4)+0.023 9X_(1)*X_(2)-0.002 5X_(1)*X_(5)-0.042 5X_(2)*X_(3)+0.498 3X_(2)*X_(4)-0.021 8X_(3)*X_(4)+0.000 7X_(3)*X_(5)-0.022 2X_(4)*X_(5)(r=0.999 0,p=0.001 5)。研究结果可在江汉平原小麦赤霉病预测预报中运用,为其防治提供参考。

The occurrence and prevalence of wheat scab have severely affected the yield and quality of wheat in Jianghan Plain. This article was based on the occurrence grade(Y), the perithecium-carrying rate of the diseased remnant(X_(1)),and the meteorology data of Jianghan Plain from 2001 to 2019. The meteorological factors we selected were rain days in early and mid-April(X_(2)), precipitation in early and mid-April(X_(3)), rain days in late April to early May(X_(4)),precipitation in late April to early May(X_(5)). A regression prediction model was established using the sub-polynomial stepwise regression method, the meteorological factors that have a significant effect on the occurrence level were introduced. The forecast model was Y=26.769 7-0.093 4 X_(1)-13.006 1 X_(2)+0.374 6 X_(3)+0.192 8 X_(5)+0.001 3 X_(1)*X_(1)+0.739 9 X_(2)*X_(2)+0.000 9 X_(3)*X_(3)-0.017 1 X_(4)*X_(4)+0.023 9 X_(1)*X_(2)-0.002 5 X_(1)*X_(5)-0.042 5 X_(2)*X_(3)+0.498 3 X_(2)*X_(4)-0.021 8 X_(3)*X_(4)+0.000 7 X_(3)*X_(5)-0.022 2 X_(4)*X_(5)(R= 0.999 0, P= 0.001 5). The results could be used in the prediction and forecast of wheat scab in Jianghan Plain, and provide a reference for its prevention and control.