新时期中亚地区经贸一体化背景、现状及前景探析

Analysis on the background,present situation and prospect of economic and trade integration in Central Asia in the new period

后苏联时代在多方因素制约下,中亚地区经贸一体化进程一直未取得根本性突破。近年来随着本地区经济的发展,内外部大环境的变化以及地区互联互通水平的显著改善,中亚经贸一体化进程出现了新的转机。在回顾以往相关研究成果的基础上,首先对中亚地区经贸一体化面临的新背景进行了分析,继而从贸易的角度切入,对中亚地区1995-2019年的区域内部贸易额和区内贸易占比的整体情况进行了分阶段研究,发现该地区内部贸易联系在持续加深,这种趋势在2015年后尤为明显。最后,根据分析结果提出中亚一体化进程在疫情后继续推进的必要性,并指出该地区在对经贸一体化路径选择时应注意的问题。

In the post-Soviet era,the process of economic and trade integration in Central Asia has not made a fundamental breakthrough under the constraints of various factors.In recent years,with the development of the regional economy,the changes of the internal and external environment and the significant improvement of regional connectivity,the economic and trade integration process of Central Asia has turned a new corner.Based on the review of previous research results,this article first analyzes the new background faced by economic and trade integration in Central Asia,and then from the perspective of trade,it analyzes the internal trade and trade accounted for the overall situation of the research in stages from 1995 to 2019.The overall situation of the trade share has been studied in stages,and it is found that the intra-regional trade ties continue to deepen.This trend is particularly evident after 2015.Finally,based on the analysis results,the necessity of the Central Asian integration process to continue after the COVID-19 is pointed out,and the issues that the region should pay attention to when choosing the path of economic and trade integration.