京津冀城市群城镇化质量的测度

Measurement on Urbanization Quality in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration

城市群是推动新型城镇化发展的主体形态。近年来,京津冀城市群城镇化进程中不平衡、不协调、不可持续等深层次问题较为突出,处于由"规模"扩大向"质量"提升转型的关键时期。文章通过构建城市群城镇化质量测度模型,运用突变级数法对京津冀城市群城镇化质量进行评价与分析。结果显示,研究区间内,京津冀城市群城镇化质量经历了较为显著的"S"型周期性变化趋势;京津冀城市群社会发展质量持续改善,但是经济发展质量指数、社会发展质量指数呈现较大幅度起伏,三者不平衡、不协调特征显著。

Urban agglomeration is the main form of promoting the development of new urbanization. In recent years, deeprooted problems such as the imbalanced, uncoordinated, and unsustainable development in the urbanization process of the BeijingTianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration have become more prominent, and urbanization is in a critical period of transformation from "scale" expansion to "quality" promotion. By constructing a urbanization quality measurement model of urban agglomeration, this paper employs the catastrophe progression method to evaluate and analyze the urbanization quality of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration. The results show that within the research interval, the urbanization quality of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration has experienced a significant "S" type periodic change trend, and that the social development quality of the BeijingTianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration continues to improve, but the quality index of economic development and that of social development fluctuate greatly, showing significant characteristics of unbalanced and uncoordinated development in the three regions.