交通结构、市场规模与经济增长

Transportation Structure,Market Size and Economic Growth

当前中国经济面临结构性放缓和运输经济效应放缓的双重压力。本文基于量化空间结构模型构建交通结构与市场规模的可量化关系,采用1999-2015年中国综合交通地理数据展开测算,分析了综合交通运输和交通结构的经济效应及其差异化影响。研究结果表明,高速公路经济效应呈先上升后下降态势,其他单一交通网络的经济效应则表现出边际递减特征,而综合交通组合结构的经济效应处于边际递增阶段。此外,本文还探讨了综合交通网络产生递增效应的机理,发现经过优化换乘和联运规划的一体化交通会显著提高运输经济效应。本研究结论对挖掘交通结构潜能、实现“交通强国”战略及提升经济增长质量具有比较重要的政策启示。

China’s economy is currently facing dual pressure due to a structural slowdown and a slowdown in the economic effects of transportation. Based on the quantitative spatial structure model, this paper constructs a quantifiable relationship between transportation structure and market size. It uses China’s comprehensive geographic transportation data between 1999 and 2015 to conduct calculations and empirically analyses the economic effects of China’s comprehensive transportation and transportation structure, and their differential effects. The results of the study reveal that the economic effects of highways show a trend of rising first and then falling. Other single transportation networks show the characteristics of diminishing marginal economic effects, while the comprehensive transportation structure has increasing marginal economic effects. This paper also explores the mechanism of the incremental effect of the comprehensive transportation network and finds that comprehensive transportation with optimised transfer and intermodal planning significantly improves the economic effects of transportation. The study’s findings have significant policy implications for harnessing the potential of the transportation structure, making China a country with a strong transportation network and improving the quality of economic growth.