基于危机生命周期的旅游业疫情危机演化及应对

The Evolution and Countermeasures of Tourism Epidemic Crisis Based on Crisis Life Cycle

2020年爆发的新冠病毒肺炎公共卫生事件给旅游业造成了难以预估的影响,如何对旅游业疫情危机演化进行识别与调控,成为当前实业界与学术界最为关注的问题。在梳理相关研究文献、预测现实状况的基础上,结合危机生命周期理论,以2003年SARS疫情作为对比案例,对旅游业疫情危机演化过程进行分析。研究发现,可以将旅游业的疫情危机演化过程划分为短期锐减阶段、中期过渡阶段、长期优化阶段三大阶段,分别对应着危害极端性、反弹不确定性、机遇与挑战共存性的阶段特征,在此基础上提出短期救助策略、中期调控策略、长期优化策略。旨在为旅游业疫情危机提供动态应对策略。

The COVID-19 that broke out in 2020 cause unpredictable impact on the tourism industry.How to identify and regulate the evolution of the tourism epidemic has become the most concerned issue in the industry and academia.On the basis of sorting out relevant research literature and predicting the actual situation,combined with the crisis life cycle theory,the SARS epidemic in 2003 was used as a comparative case to analyze the evolution process of the tourism epidemic crisis.The study found that the evolution of epidemic crisis in the tourism industry can be divided into three stages:a short-term sharp reduction stage,a mid-term transition stage,and a long-term optimization stage.On this basis,the paper puts forward short-term rescue strategies,medium-term control strategies,long-term optimization strategies.It aims to provide a dynamic response strategy for tourism under the epidemic crisis.