广东省高等教育规模预测及教育规划建议

Prediction of Higher Education scale and suggestions on education planning in Guangdong Province

通过收集2019年广东统计年鉴的教育规模数据,建立灰色预测模型,并在传统GM(1,1)模型基础上,引入新信息GM (1,1)模型、新陈代谢GM (1,1)模型对原模型进行反馈校正,对广东省高等教育2019-2025年的发展规模作出预测。依据分析预测数据可以得出:广东省毕业生数增速上升最为明显;在校生数增量最为显著,"十四五"后期呈现快速增长趋势;专任教师数增量最为缓慢。针对发展规模预测,广东省需要优化高等教育财政经费投入结构;需要精准定位以实现高等教育内涵提升,需要调整高等教育层次结构以缓解就业压力。

By collecting the education scale data of the Guangdong Statistical Yearbook in 2019,the grey prediction model is established,and on the basis of the traditional GM(1,1)model,the new information GM(1,1)model and the metabolic GM(1,1)model are introduced.The original model was used for feedback correction to predict the law of the development of higher education in Guangdong Province,and provide an important reference for the country to formulate higher educa⁃tion policies,the Guangdong Provincial government to coordinate the scale and structure of higher education institutions,and to adjust the positioning of universities.