吉林省高速公路交通事故与气象要素的关系研究

Study on relationships between highway traffic accidents and meteorological factors in Jilin province

利用2009—2019年吉林省27条主要高速公路交通事故资料,结合高速路段事故发生点对应的国家级气象站观测资料,运用SPSS算法中的k-均值聚类分析法、数据标准化处理、主成分分析法以及事故比等数理方法,对高速公路交通事故的时空分布特征以及交通事故与气象要素关系进行分析。结果表明:冬季是事故高发季节,夏季次之,春、秋两季事故相对较少;高速公路事故空间分布区域基本划分为高危、次高危、中危、低危四个等级,中部地区属于高危风险区域,北部地区属于低危风险区域,珲乌线上的长春至蛟河、延边东部是事故发生最多的路段;降雨、阴天、降雪天气是气象要素影响下交通事故发生的主要原因,降雨量级、降雪量级与交通事故的发生均成正比关系,阴天对高速公路行车安全的影响可以用能见度作为量化指标,能见度降到50 m以下时对交通事故的影响达到最大;风力达到6级及以上时对交通事故的影响明显。

Based on the daily traffic accident data of 27 major highways in Jilin province from 2009 to 2019,combined with the observational data of 24 national meteorological stations in Jilin province corresponding to the accident points of the highways,the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of highway traffic accidents and their relationships with meteorological elements were analyzed and studied using the k-mean cluster,data standardization,Principal Component Analysis(PCA)and accident ratio methods from SPSS software.The results show that the accidents were the most in winter,followed by summer,fewer in spring and autumn.The highway accidents were basically divided into four grades i.e.high risk,second high risk,medium risk,and low risk.Specifically,the central region was the high-risk area,and the northern region was the low-risk area,and the most accidents occurred in the area from Changchun to Jiaohe and the eastern part of Yanbian on the Huiwu line.Meteorological elements including rain,overcast,and snow were the main causes of traffic accidents.Only considering the influence of a single factor,rainfall and snowfall were positively related to the traffic accidents.Visibility was able to be adopted to quantify the influence of overcast on highway traffic safety and was the most important influence factor on traffic accidents when it was below 50 meters,especially under the wind force of level 6 or above.