基于蒙特卡罗方法的广州港航行风险评估

Navigation risk assessment of Guangzhou port based on Monte Carlo method

为了解不同等级能见度下的广州港航行风险特征,将不同能见度下定性的广州港航行风险定量化,以期增强广州港航行事故风险控制能力,提高广州港资源利用率。通过分析不同能见度下广州港船舶出现事故的频率以及造成后果的严重性,对二者进行概率统计后,分别对3种等级能见度下的事故数据进行蒙特卡罗仿真,有效增加了广州港航行事故的数据样本,得出3种等级能见度下的仿真结果,进而得到能见度在0—12 km内的风险分布特征。结果表明:采用基于蒙特卡罗仿真方法的概率分布模型能有效地解决航行风险小样本问题,风险结果可靠。风险在能见度不良(Vis≤5 km)时最低,良好(Vis≥10 km)时次之;受限(5 km<Vis<10 km)时最高,近似为另外两种情况的1.7—2.4倍左右。可见该方法可以很好地评估能见度在0—12 km内的广州港航行风险,为划定风险等级标准提供参考。

To obtain the characteristics of navigation risk of Guangzhou port at different visibility levels,the qualitative navigation risks of Guangzhou port under different visibility were quantified,to enhance the risk control ability of navigation accidents and improve the resources utilization rate of Guangzhou port.By analyzing the frequency of ship accidents and the severity of the consequences under different visibility,the Monte Carlo simulation of the accident data under three levels of visibility was carried out after the probability statistics of the two,which effectively increased the navigation accidents samples of Guangzhou port.The simulation results under three levels of visibility were obtained,and then the risk distribution characteristics of visibility within 0 and 12 km were acquired.The results show that the probability distribution model based on the Monte Carlo simulation method can effectively solve the problem of small samples of navigation risk,and the risk result is reliable.The risk is lowest at poor visibility(Vis≤5 km),followed by good visibility(Vis≥10 km).When it is restricted(5 km<Vis<10 km),the risk is approximately 1.7-2.4 times of the other two cases.It can be seen that this method can well assess the navigation risk of Guangzhou port with visibility within 0-12 km,and provide a reference for delineating risk level standards.