中长运距城际旅客出行方式选择行为模型——以高铁、民航为例

Travel Mode Choice Behavior Model of Intercity Passengers with Mediumand Long Haul—A Case Study of High-Speed Railway and Air Transport

针对中长距离城际旅客对高铁,民航,空铁联运与民航中转等出行方式的选择行为。应用意向调查(SP)方法选择3个典型OD开展客流调查,构建多项式logit(mnl)模型与混合logit(ml)模型拟合数据,分析影响旅客选择行为的关键因素,说明旅客选择行为的异质特征.研究结果表明:相比MNL模型,ML模型显著提升了模型预测能力,更好描述了旅客选择行为的异质性,更适于出行方式选择行为建模;行程前时间,在途时间,中转时间是影响旅客选择的主要因素;出行目的,公费出行等对出行方式选择也有重要影响;在1400~2000 km运距范围,减少中转时间可以有效提高空铁联运与民航中转出行方式市场分担率;1400 km运距范围内,如果中转时间在1.5 h以内,则民航中转与空铁联运2类出行方式的替代特征明显,2000 km运距范围民航中转市场分担率显著高于空铁联运。

Aiming at the choice behavior of medium-and-long distance intercity passenger on high-speed rail(H),civil aviation(A),high-speed rail and air combined transport(HA)and civil aviation transit(AA),three typical ODs were selected to carry out passenger flow survey with SP method.Multinomial logit model(MNL)and mixed logit model(ML)were conducted to fit the data,the key factors affecting passengers’mode choice were analyzed,and the heterogeneity of passengers’choice behavior was illustrated.The research results show that:compared with MNL model,ML model significantly improves the prediction ability of the model,better describes the heterogeneity of passengers’choice behavior,and is more suitable for travel mode choice behavior modeling.The time before the trip,the time on the way and the transit time are the main factors affecting passengers’choice.In addition,the trip purpose and whether reimbursement or not are also important factors impacting passengers’choice of travel mode.In the range of 1400~2000km travel distance,reducing transit time can effectively improve the market share ratio of HA and AA travel mode;in the range of 1400 km travel distance,if the transit time is less than 1.5h,the interchangeability of AA and HA is obvious;while,for 2000km travel distance,the market share ratio of AA is significantly higher than that of HA.