突破式创新对自愿性管理层业绩预告的影响

Impact of Disruptive Innovation on Voluntary Management Earnings Forecast

本文研究企业突破式创新对管理层自愿性披露业绩预告的影响。利用专利分类和引证数据,本文构造上市公司突破式创新的度量指标,发现进行突破式创新的企业增加了自愿性业绩预告的频率和乐观业绩预告的次数,但业绩预测的准确度却不高。进一步研究发现,进行突破式创新的企业发布业绩预告的动机在于以较低的信息违规成本获得外部融资。证券分析师增强了突破式创新对业绩预告频率的影响,削弱了对业绩预测准确度的影响。业务和财务信息融合抑制了突破式创新对业绩预告乐观性和准确度的影响。本研究为企业创新策略对信息披露的影响提供了证据,丰富了自愿性披露影响因素的研究,对投资者和监管部门理解创新策略,促进资本市场配置效率,助力我国经济高质量发展具有参考价值。

This paper studies the influence of disruptive innovation on voluntary management earnings forecast.We construct measures of disruptive innovations based on patent technological classifications and citations from Chinese listed firm.Firms that conduct disruptive innovations issue voluntary management earnings forecast more frequently compared with those conducting incremental innovations.This paper also finds that firms conducting disruptive innovations issue more optimistic but less accurate voluntary management forecasts.Voluntary management earnings forecast is an effective way to raise external funding without violating information disclosure regulations.Also,equity analysts strengthen the effects of disruptive innovations on voluntary management forecasts frequency but weaken effects on forecast accuracy.Business and financial information integration reduces the effect on management forecast optimism and accuracy.The results remain robust after test with instrumental variables,Heckman two-stage model and alternative measurements of disruptive innovations.This paper contributes to the understanding of how firm’s information disclosure is influenced by innovation strategy.