基于时间序列和灰色预测的原煤产量预测

Raw Coal Production Forecast Based on Time Series and Grey Prediction

煤炭资源不可再生,是保障国家国民经济发展的基石,因此原煤产量预测意义重大。提取2016-2019年中国原煤产量的月度数据,利用时间序列的按月移动平均和灰色预测法2种方法来预测2020年的原煤产量,预测结果是时间序列的按月移动平均法预测效果比灰色预测法的预测效果更好。以上2种方法对原煤产量的预测都具有实际意义,有效的预测可为国家未来的发展提出有效建议和相关保障措施。

Coal resources are non-renewable, which is the cornerstone of national economic development, so it is significance to forecast raw coal output. The monthly data of China′ s raw coal production from 2016 to 2019 are extracted, and the two methods of monthly moving average of time series and gray prediction method are used to predict the raw coal output in 2020. The prediction result shows that the prediction effect of monthly moving average of time series is better than that of gray prediction method. The above two methods have practical significance for the prediction of raw coal production, and the effective prediction can put forward effective suggestions and relevant safeguard measures for the country′s future development.