城镇化、房价与城乡收入差距

Urbanization,Housing Price and Urban-Rural Income Gap

通过建立2002-2018年全国270个地级市面板数据的PVAR模型,以房价收入比为分类指标进行分组回归,并进行稳健性检验和相应的政策分析。通过脉冲响应和方差分解后发现:城镇化和城乡收入差距的扩大都会推动房价的提高,房价提高会抑制城镇化并拉大城乡收入差距,在高房价收入比城市的影响作用要远远大于在低房价收入比城市的影响作用;在高房价收入比城市,由于高房价会产生对城镇化的抑制作用和对城乡差距的扩大作用,随着城镇化的发展城乡收入差距呈现扩大趋势,城乡收入差距也不会在短期内有效促进城镇化;在低房价收入比城市,城镇化对城乡收入差距只表现出轻微的缩小作用,城乡收入差距也无法有效推动城镇化。

This paper establishes the PVAR model based on the panel data of 270 prefecture level cities in China from 2002 to 2018,uses the ratio of housing price and income as the classification index to carry out group regression,and carries out the robustness test and the corresponding policy analysis.Research shows after Impulse response and variance decomposition:Urbanization and the expansion of urban-rural income gap promote the increase of housing price,the increase of housing price inhibits urbanization and widens the income gap between urban and rural areas,and the influence in cities with high ratio of housing price and income is far greater than that in cities with low ratio;In cities with high housing price to income ratio,because high housing price inhibits urbanization and expands the gap between urban and rural areas,the income gap between urban and rural areas expands with urbanization,and the income gap between urban and rural areas does not effectively promote urbanization in the short term;In cities with low housing price to income ratio,urbanization development only shows a slight narrowing effect on the urban-rural income gap,and the urban-rural income gap can not effectively promote urbanization.