季风气候对农作物单产的影响分析——以镇宁自治县为例

Analysis on the influence of monsoon climate on crop yield per unit area:A case study of Zhenning autonomous county

以镇宁自治县1990—2012年的年平均气温、年降雨量、年平均相对湿度、年日照总时数、无霜期和积温等气象要素观测及水稻、小麦、玉米产量的统计数据为基础,运用多元线性回归模型分析这3种作物的产量与这些气候因子的关系。结果表明,随着降雨量的增加,小麦的产量逐渐下降,反之水稻、玉米的产量增加;3种作物的产量受自然灾害的影响较大;在出现极端天气时,农作物的种植结构会出现较单一的情况。

Based on the meteorological observations of annual mean temperature,annual rainfall,annual mean relative humidity,an⁃nual total sunshine hours,frost-free period and accumulated temperature and the statistical data of rice,wheat and maize yields from 1990 to 2012 in Zhenning autonomous county,the relationship between the yields of these three crops and these climatic factors was analyzed by using multiple linear regression model.The results showed that with the increase of rainfall,the yield of wheat decreased gradually,whereas the yield of rice and maize increased;The yield of the three crops was greatly affected by natural disasters;In the event of extreme weather,the planting structure of crops would appear relatively single situation.