农机投入、财政支农对粮食产出的影响研究--基于2007-2019年广东、广西市级面板数据的实证分析

Research on the impact of agricultural machinery input and financial support for agriculture on grain output:Based on the empirical analysis of municipal panel data in Guangdong and Guangxi from 2007 to 2019

提高粮食生产水平是保障中国粮食安全的关键,而农机投入和财政支农作为农业现代化的技术支持与政策保障是提升粮食产量的重要途径。基于此,以广东与广西33个城市2007—2019年的面板数据为对象,采用空间杜宾模型分析农机投入对粮食产出是否存在空间溢出效应,采用面板门槛模型分析财政支农支出对粮食产出是否存在非线性影响。结果表明:第一,农机投入存在显著的正向空间集聚效应,广东、广西农机投入水平呈现东低西高分布特征;第二,财政支农支出对粮食产出存在非线性的影响,随着农机投入水平的提高,财政支农支出促进粮食增产的作用呈“倒U型”态势。由此提出以下政策建议:一是广东与广西应优化农机装备产业结构布局;二是农机的推广要与各城市产业优势相结合;三是广东与广西都应加大粮食生产补贴与农机补贴支持力度,实现农户增收与粮食增产。

Improving grain production is the key to ensuring food security in China,and agricultural machinery input and financial support for agriculture,as the technical support and policy guarantee of agricultural modernization,are the essential ways to improve grain output.Based on the panel data of 33 cities in Guangdong and Guangxi from 2007 to 2019,the spatial Dubin model was used to analyze whether there was a spatial spillover effect of agricultural machinery input on grain output.The panel threshold model was used to analyze whether there was a non-linear impact of financial support for agriculture on grain output.The results showed that:first,there was a significant positive spatial agglomeration effect in agricultural machinery input,and the agricultural machinery input levels in Guangdong and Guangxi were low in the east and high in the west.Second,the impact of financial support for agriculture on grain output was non-linear.With the improvement of agricultural machinery input,the role of financial support for agriculture on the increase of grain production was in an“inverted U-shaped”situation.Therefore,the following policy recommendations are put forward:first,Guangdong and Guangxi should optimize the industrial structure of agricultural machinery and equipment.Second,the promotion of agricultural machinery should be combined with the industrial advantages of each city.The third is that both Guangdong and Guangxi should increase grain production subsidies and agricultural machinery subsidies to increase farmers income and grain production.