要素禀赋变化对农业生产要素投入与技术选择的影响

Influence of factor endowment change on factor input and technology selection of agricultural production

运用2004—2018年小麦和棉花的投入产出数据,构建包含要素价格信息的超越对数成本函数模型,实证检验要素禀赋变化对农业生产要素替代与技术选择的影响及其作物差异。研究结果表明:短期内,要素禀赋变化存在明显的要素替代效应。无论小麦还是棉花,机械与劳动力之间均存在明显的替代关系,说明农业正在经历以人力畜力为主时代向以机械化、信息化为主时代的转变;作物比较发现,小麦的机械—劳动力替代强度明显高于棉花,说明不同作物机械化发展不平衡,未来农业机械化发展要注意调结构。长期内,要素禀赋变化会影响长期技术选择,无论小麦还是棉花,劳动力成本的上升都诱致了劳动力节约型技术进步。因此,未来应持续推进要素价格市场化改革进程,利用价格信号来调节要素需求与要素投入;要顺应农业向机械化、信息化时代转变的历史潮流,大力推进农业机械化、智能化;要充分重视不同作物机械化发展不平衡问题,调整农业机械化发展结构,促进农业生产的全面机械化。

Based on the input-output data of wheat and cotton from 2004 to 2018,a translogarithmic cost function model containing factor price information is constructed to empirically test the impact of factor endowment change on factor substitution and technology selection and the difference between crops.The results show that in the short term,factor endowment change has an obvious factor substitution effect.Whether wheat or cotton,there is an apparent substitution relationship between machinery and labor,indicating that agriculture is transforming from an era dominated by human and animal power to one led by mechanization and information technology.It is found by crop comparison that the mechanical-labor substitution intensity of wheat is significantly higher than cotton,which reflects the imbalance of mechanization development of different crops,and structure adjustment should be taken under consideration in future agricultural mechanization development.In the long run,the change of factor endowment can affect long-term technology selection.Whether it is wheat or cotton,the rise of labor costs leads to labor-saving technological progress.Therefore,we should continue to promote the market-oriented reform of factor price and use price signals to adjust factor demand and factor input in the future.We should follow the historical trend of agricultural mechanization and information age and vigorously promote agricultural mechanization and intelligence.We should pay full attention to the unbalanced development of mechanization of different crops,adjust the development structure of agricultural mechanization,and promote the overall mechanization of agricultural production.