Validation of risk scoring models for predicting stroke-associated pneumonia in patients with ischaemic stroke

Objective:Various risk scoring models have been developed to predict stroke-associated pneumonia(SAP).We aim to determine whether these risk models could effectively predict SAP in Chinese patients with ischaemic stroke(IS).Methods:Consecutive patients with IS in West China hospital between January 2011 and September 2013 were included to assess the predictive performance of risk scoring models,including Chumbler’s score,A^(2)DS^(2) and AISAPS.The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(AUROC)was used to evaluate the performance of each risk model in predicting pneumonia.Results:A total of 1569 consecutive patients with IS within 30 days of onset in West China hospital were included.The incidence of pneumonia is 15.3%.The AUROC of Chumbler’s score,A^(2)DS^(2) and AISAPS was 0.659,0.728 and 0.758,respectively,and AISAPS had the highest AUROC.Conclusions:A^(2)DS^(2) and AISAPS had acceptable discriminatory abilities to predict SAP in Chinese patients with IS within 30 days of onset.