电商经济与会展规模:来自中国的经验证据

E-commerce Economy and Exhibition Scale--the Empirical Evidence from China

电商业和会展业作为平台经济下的商务形态,两者间既有联系又有区别。在高新技术发展与新冠肺炎疫情催化下,会展业与电商业由相互竞争向相互融合、优势互补转变。为更好地了解电商业与会展业之间的作用关系,推动会展服务模式转型升级与双线融合商业形态创新发展,利用2012—2019年我国30个省市区的面板数据构建计量模型,对全国层面和区域层面电商经济与会展规模之间的影响效应进行实证分析和稳健性检验。从全国层面看,会展规模对电商经济具有显著正向影响,但电商经济对会展规模没有显著影响。从区域层面看,两者间的影响效应在我国中部、东部、西部三个地区存在区域异质性。其具体表现为,在西部地区电商经济对会展规模具有显著正向影响,在东部和中部地区这种影响效应并不显著;在东部和西部地区会展规模对电商经济均具有显著正向影响,且在东部地区这种影响效应更强,而在中部地区则呈现出显著的负向影响。后疫情时代,为更好地推动电商业与会展业融合发展,应重视会展业对电商业的带动作用,加大实体产业对虚拟经济的支撑力度;应运用新模式、新技术、新场景,推动线上线下深度融合与实体虚拟协同创新;应采用区域差异化策略引导建立与区域发展特征相匹配的产业融合发展机制。

As the business form under the platform economy,e-commerce and exhibition industry have both connection and difference.With the development of high and new technologies and the COVID 19 epidemic,the e-commerce and exhibition industry are transforming from mutual competition to integration and complementarity.In order to better understand the relationship between e-commerce and exhibition industry,promote the transformation and upgrading of exhibition service mode and the innovative development of double-line integrated business form,and stimulate the integrated development of e commerce and exhibition industry,the authors use the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2012 to 2019 to construct an econometric model and carry out an empirical analysis and robustness test on the interaction effect between the exhibition scale and e-commerce economy at the national and regional perspective.From the national perspective,the exhibition scale has a significant positive impact on the e-commerce economy,but the e-commerce economy has no significant impact on the exhibition scale.From the regional perspective,there is regional heterogeneity in such three regions as the central,eastern and western China.Specifically,the e-commerce economy in the western region has a significant positive impact on the exhibition scale,while this effect is not obvious in the eastern and central region;the exhibition scale in eastern and western region has a significant positive impact on the e-commerce economy,and this effect is stronger in the eastern region than in the western region;and in the central region,this effect is significant negative.In the post-epidemic era,in order to better promote the integrated development of e-commerce and exhibition industry,we should,first,attach importance to the role of the exhibition industry in leading the development of e-commerce,and strengthen the support of real economy for the virtual economy;second,we should use new models,new technologies and new scenarios to promote the in-depth online and offline integration and the coordinated innovation of real and virtual economy;and third,we should adopt regional differentiated strategies to establish an industrial integration development mechanism matching the characteristics of regional development.