国际原油价格波动与中国LNG进口价格关系研究

Research on the relationship between international crude oil price fluctuation and China's LNG import price

为分析国际原油价格波动与中国LNG进口价格之间的关系,选取2014年11月-2020年7月的国际原油价格和中国LNG进口价格月平均数据建立VAR模型,并运用协整检验、误差修正模型和格兰杰因果关系检验进行研究。结果表明:国际原油价格和中国LNG进口价格之间存在长期均衡关系,且表现为同向变动。在短期内,当国际原油价格和中国LNG进口价格出现偏离时,中国LNG进口价格将会反方向变动以进行调整,而国际原油价格变化相对较小。国际原油价格是中国LNG进口价格的单向格兰杰原因,前者对后者具有预测能力。国际原油价格的短期波动主要是受自身价格的影响,中国LNG进口价格的波动会同时受到国际原油价格和自身的影响,但更大程度上是由于国际原油价格对其冲击作用,影响时滞为7个月。

In order to analyze the relationship between international crude oil price fluctuation and China's LNG import price,this paper selects the monthly average data of international crude oil price and China's LNG import price from November 2014 to July 2020 to establish VAR model,and uses cointegration test,error correction model and Granger causality test to study.The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between international crude oil price and China's LNG import price,and the change is in the same direction.In the short term,when international crude oil price deviates from China's LNG import price,China's LNG import price will change in the opposite direction for adjustment,while the changes in international crude oil prices will be relatively small.The international crude oil price is the one-way Granger cause of China's LNG import price,and the former has the ability to predict the latter.The short-term fluctuation of international crude oil price is mainly affected by its own price.The fluctuation of China's LNG import price will be affected by both the international crude oil price and itself,but to a greater extent,it is due to the impact of international crude oil price,with a lag of 7 months.