贸易政策不确定性对企业税务筹划的影响--基于企业债务成本视角的研究

The influence of trade policy uncertainty on corporate tax planning——Research based on the perspective of corporate debt cost

在英国“脱欧”的背景下,国际贸易政策不确定性对中国出口企业税务筹划策略选择必然造成影响。从企业债务压力角度看,企业债务成本水平的高低同样影响企业对税务筹划的判断。以英国“脱欧”事件为准自然实验,借助企业债务成本指标对研究对象进行分组研究,采用PSM-DID模型实证分析了英国“脱欧”事件产生的贸易政策不确定性对企业避税程度的影响。结果显示:第一,英国“脱欧”事件产生的贸易政策不确定性显著降低了中国出口企业的避税程度;第二,对于面临高债务成本压力的企业,企业投资收益下降是造成避税程度下降的主要原因,而在债务成本低的企业中,贸易政策不确定性与企业避税程度无显著关系;第三,在不确定性条件下,原始避税程度较高的企业更倾向于采取消极的税务筹划策略。为更好控制贸易政策不确定性对中国出口企业的影响,一方面,需调整面向海外出口企业的税收优惠政策,引导企业平衡税务筹划、企业投资与债务成本之间的关系;另一方面,管理者应结合企业原始税务筹划特征,选择合理的税务筹划决策组合,以维持企业短期利益与长期利益的平衡性。

Under the background of Brexit,the uncertainty of international trade policy will inevitably affect the choice of tax planning strategy of Chinese export enterprises.From the perspective of debt pressure,the level of debt cost also affects the judgment of tax planning.Taking the Brexit event as a quasi-natural experiment,this paper conducted a group study on the research objects with the help of the debt cost index of enterprises,and used the PSM-DID model to empirically analyze the impact of the trade policy uncertainty caused by the Brexit event on the degree of tax avoidance of enterprises.The results show that:(1)the uncertainty of trade policy caused by Brexit significantly reduces the degree of tax avoidance of Chinese export enterprises;(2)for enterprises facing high debt cost pressure,the decline of enterprise investment income is the main reason for the decline of tax avoidance,while in enterprises with low debt cost,there is no significant relationship between the uncertainty of trade policy and the degree of tax avoidance;(3)enterprises with high sensitivity to uncertainty factors are more likely to adopt negative tax planning strategies.In order to better control the impact of trade policy uncertainty on China’s export enterprises,on the one hand,it is necessary to adjust the preferential tax policies for overseas export enterprises,and guide enterprises to balance the relationship between tax planning,enterprise investment and debt cost;on the other hand,managers should combine the sensitivity of enterprises to uncertain factors and choose a reasonable combination of tax planning decisions to maintain the balance between short-term interests and long-term interests of enterprises.