基于IPAT模型的中国园林绿化废弃物产量影响因素与时空特征研究

Research on Influencing Factors and Spatiotemporal Dynamic Pattern of Garden Waste Generation in China Based on the IPAT model

基于2006-2019年中国经济水平和绿化面积等面板数据,对中国园林绿化废弃物产量进行科学核算,并系统分析了园林绿化废弃物产生的动态特征与时空特征.同时,以IPAT固态效应模型与Divisia对数权重分解法为基础,深入探究了4种影响因素对我国园林绿化废弃物产生的贡献效率.结果表明:1)2006年以来我国园林绿化废弃物产量增长明显,且不同区域的空间格局差异显著;2)经济因素(R)、城市因素(I)与绿地因素(S)均是影响园林绿化废弃物排放的主要驱动因素,其影响作用依次为R>I>S,经济因素与绿地因素是拉动产量增长的促进因素;3)从驱动因素归类分析结果来看,各地区可以按驱动因子强度分为4种类型,其中"平衡型"是较理想的发展模式,另外有38.7%的城市处于"R型"发展.研究结果可为我国园林绿化废弃物收集处理全链条的管理提供科学性理论依据.

Based on the panel data of China's economic level and green area from 2006 to 2019,the output of landscape waste in China was calculated scientifically,and the dynamic and spatiotemporal characteristics of landscape waste generation were systematically analyzed.At the same time,based on the solid state effect model of IPAT and the logarithmic weight decomposition method of Divisia,the contribution efficiency of four influencing factors to the generation of landscape greening waste in China was deeply explored.The results showed as follows:1)Since 2006,the generation of landscape waste in China has increased significantly,and the spatial pattern of different regions has significant differences;2)The economic factor(R),urban factor(I)and green space factor(S)were the main driving factors affecting the waste emission of landscaping,and their effects were in the order of R>I>S.The economic factor and green space factor were the promoting factors driving the generation growth.3)According to the analysis results of driving factors,each region can be divided into four types according to the intensity of driving factors,among which"balanced"development mode is the ideal one,and 38.7%of cities are in"R-type"development mode.This study can provide a scientific theoretical basis for the management of the whole chain of landscape waste collection and treatment in China.