2010-2018年南京市HIV阳性男男性行为者时空扫描分析

Epidemiological and Spatiotemporal characteristics of MSM infected with HIV in Nanjing City from 2010 to 2018

目的了解南京市HIV阳性MSM病例流行特点和时空分布特征。方法采用描述性流行病学方法,分析2010-2018年南京市HIV阳性MSM病例的特征;采用SaTScan 9.4的回顾性泊松模型进行时空扫描。结果2010-2018年共发现HIV阳性MSM 3046例,其中20~39岁者2205例(72.39%),职业分布中学生所占比例从7.43%(11/148)逐年上升至21.08%(70/332)。每年均探测到时空聚集区(P均<0.05),呈现以核心城区为中心,向周边地区辐射的现象;聚集时间多为10-12月。结论南京市HIV阳性MSM病例存在明显的时空聚集,且有向周边地区扩散的趋势。

Objective To analyze epidemiological features and the temporal-spatial characteristics of MSM living with HIV in Nanjing.Methods Descriptive epidemiological methods were used to analyze data of MSM infected with HIV in Nanjing during 2010-2018.A retrospective method of SaTScan 9.4 was used to explore spatial characteristics.Results 3,046 cases of MSM infected with HIV were reported from 2010 to 2018.72.39%of them aged between 20 to39 years old.The proportion of college students progressively increased from 7.43%(11/148)in 2010 to 21.08%(70/332)in2018.The spatial and temporal aggregation areas existed among HIV/AIDS cases in Nanjing.The most likely cluster was found to be shifted from the core built-up area to the nearby district and spread to the neighborhood.The temporal dimension of HIV/AIDS was from October to December.Conclusions The HIV infection among MSM had obvious spatial and temporal aggregation in Nanning and tended to spread to surrounding areas.