基于“POI-用地”嵌套关系模型的人流预测方法研究——以成都市青羊区公厕需求预测为例

Research on Human Flow Forecasting Method Based on"POI-Use Land"Relation Model:Taking the Forecast of Public Toilet Demand in Qingyang District of Chengdu as an Example

文章利用各类POI数据、城市现状数据对建成区进行"人流吸引评价"强度分析,利用分区规划、形态分区、控规用地规划等进行未来年人流出行活动强弱预测,构建形成"POI-用地"嵌套的人流预测模型。以成都市青羊区为例对模型进行运算,预测规划形成后未来年人流分布和公厕需求,并运用用地分析法进行校验,对比发现模型具备可行性,在空间布局上更贴合实际情况,可为与人流活动强弱相关的各类设施规划提供参考。

In this paper,POI data and current data of urban built-up areas have been used to analyze evaluation of people flow attraction.The nuclear density estimation,the linear distance function zoning planning,morphological zoning,and land use planning have been used to predict the strength of future outflows,building a forecast model of people flow forming"POI-land"nesting.This paper takes Chengdu Qingyang district as an example to calculate the model,estimates the spatial distribution of human flow and the demand of public toilets in the future.The land analysis method has been used to verify the forecast results of public toilets.In general,the"POI-land"model is feasible,more practical in spatial layout,and can be a reference train for various types of facility planning associated with the intensity of human activities.