气象因素对北京市通州区蚊密度的效应分析

Effect of meteorological factors on mosquito density in Tongzhou District of Beijing

目的了解各种气象因素对北京市通州区蚊密度的影响,为蚊虫及相关传染病防控提供科学依据。方法收集北京市通州区单日常规气象数据及2015—2019年的蚊密度监测数据,应用Spearman相关分析气象因素与蚊密度相关性及滞后性,建立分布滞后非线性模型,初步探讨该模型在气象因素对蚊密度影响效应中的应用。结果日最低温度(r=0.58,P<0.05)、最小湿度(r=0.38,P<0.05)、最高气压(r=-0.53,P<0.05)与蚊密度相关,最小湿度为17%时,滞后第4天时相对危险度(RR)值最大,当最高气压为1032 hPa时,滞后第11天时RR值最大,最低气温为5℃时,滞后第3天时RR值最大,此后逐渐下降。结论最低温度、最小湿度、最高气压可能是影响通州区蚊密度的气象因素,影响效应有滞后性,以上结论对建立蚊密度及相关传染病早期气象预警系统有一定意义。

Objective To understand the influence of various meteorological factors on mosquito density in Tongzhou District of Beijng,so as to provide scientific basis for the prevention and control of mosquitoes and related infectious diseases.Methods Daily routine weather data and mosquito surveillance data from 2015 to 2019 in Tongzhou District of Beijing were collected.Spearman correlation analysis was used to determine the relationship and lag between the meteorological factors and mosquito density.The distributed lag non-linear model was established and its application in the influence of meteorological factors on mosquito density was preliminarily discussed.Results The daily minimum temperature(r=0.58,P<0.05),the daily minimum humidity(r=0.38,P<0.05),and the daily maximum pressure(r=-0.53,P<0.05)were associated with mosquito density.When the daily minimum humidity was 17%,the relative ratio(RR)value reached a maximum on the 4th day after the lag.When the daily maximum pressure was 1032 hPa,the RR value reached a maximum on the 11th day after the lag.When the daily minimum temperature was 5℃,the RR value reached a maximum on the 3rd day after the lag,then gradually decreased.Conclusions The daily minimum temperature,the daily minimum humidity and the daily maximum pressure may be the main meteorological factors that affect mosquito density in Tongzhou District,and the effect has a lagging effect.It has certain significance for establishing an early meteorological warning system of mosquito density and related infectious diseases.