广东省县域经济差异时空演化及影响因素研究

Research on spatiotemporal evolution and influencing factors of county economic differences in Guangdong province

针对广东省县域经济发展不协调现状,该文以人均GDP为测度指标,利用空间自相关和标准差椭圆分析了2005—2017年广东省县域经济差异的时空格局演化,采用多元线性回归验证因子合理性,通过地理探测器定量分析影响广东省县域经济差异的主导因子和交互作用。结果表明:(1)广东省县域经济发展整体差异明显,经济发展水平由珠三角地区向外围逐渐降低;(2)广东省经济发展水平相似的县域存在明显的空间聚类特征,珠三角地区对其他区域的极化效应减弱,溢出效应增强;(3)广东省县域经济发展重心由西南方向朝东南方向移动,东翼、西翼、山区相对于珠三角地区的经济增长速度加快;(4)城镇居民可支配收入、第三产业产值、地方财政收入、人均社会消费品零售额、铁路密度是影响广东省县域经济差异的主要因素。

In order to explore the spatiotemporal evolution and influencing factors of county economic differences in Guangdong province, the paper took per capita GDP as the measurement index. Spatial autocorrelation and standard deviation ellipse were used to analyze the spatiotemporal pattern evolution from 2005 to2017.Multiple linear regression was used to verify the rationality of factors.Furthermore,the leading factors and their interactions of economic differences were quantitatively analyzed through the geodetector.The results showed that:(1)the overall difference was obvious between the county economies in Guangdong province.The spatial distribution of economic development level showed the characteristics of center-periphery from the Pearl River Delta region to the peripheral region.(2)There were spatial clustering characteristics in counties with similar economic development level.Moreover,the polarization effect of the Pearl River Delta region on other regions was weakened,but the spillover effect was enhanced.(3)The barycenter of economic development moved from the southwest to the southeast.The economic growth speed of the east wing,the west wing and the mountain area was faster than that of the Pearl River Delta region.(4)The disposable income of urban residents,the output value of the tertiary industry,the local financial income,the retail sales of social consumer goods,and the railway density were the main factors affecting the economic development of the counties in Guangdong.