新冠疫情对中国航煤消费影响分析及“十四五”航煤需求预测

Prediction of the 14th Five-Year Aviation Kerosene Demand in China Associated with Global COVID-19 Epidemic

新冠疫情对国内外航空运输业和航煤消费都造成了较大影响。通过研究新冠疫情对中国航煤消费的影响,对“十四五”航煤需求做出预测。在汇总比对2020年国内、国际民航客货运输和总运输情况的数据,对2020年国内航煤消费量年度、月度、国际航线、国内航线和各区域变化特点进行分析后,基于对国内外疫情走势的判断,从国内航线和国际航线两个维度对国内航煤消费量进行了预测,预计2025年国内航煤消费总量将达到4715×10^(4) t,“十四五”期间年均增速为13.0%。

The COVID-19 epidemic has exerted a profound effect on worldwide air transportation and aviation fuel consumption.This paper studies the impact of COVID-19 epidemic on the aviation kerosene consumption in China for a prediction of the aviation kerosene demand in the 14th Five Year period.Based on the global COVID-19 epidemic trend,the prediction is made of future domestic aviation fuel consumption both domestically and internationally by totaling all the civil aviation transportation in 2020.In view of the annual,monthly and regional consumption of domestic aviation kerosene in 2020,we estimate that the total domestic aviation kerosene consumption will reach 47.15 million tons in 2025,with an average annual growth rate of 13.0%during the 14th Five-Year period.