2020年中国天然气产业特点分析

Features of 2020 Natural Gas Industry in China

2020年,中国天然气消费量3281×108 m3,同比增长7.8%,增速高于原油和煤炭等能源品种,表现出良好的增长韧性。通过研究2020年中国天然气供需状况和气源价格,对中国天然气发展做出预测并提出应对策略。研究发现供给侧2020年天然气产量继续高速增长,页岩气等非常规气潜力逐渐显现,进一步降低了对外依存度,进口气和国产气气源成本进一步降低;主要进口国供应比例发生变化,储气库的冬季调峰能力凸显,国家管网集团的成立带来了行业新变化;在消费方面,气采暖和工业用气成为天然气消费增长的主要拉升因素,全年消费量中第四季度占比扩大。预计2021年天然气需求量将继续保持较高速度增长,LNG进口量进一步扩大,需要提前施行进口资源采购、基础设施能力挖掘、冬季资源增供抑价等措施,以保障天然气市场平稳健康发展。此外,为了促进城市燃气行业发展,城市燃气企业需要进一步加强价格风险管控能力。

The 2020 natural gas consumption in China was 328.1 bcm with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.8 percent,higher than that of coal,crude oil electricity and other energy resources,showing a better resilience.This paper reviews the supply and demand of natural gas in China in 2020 to predict the future development of natural gas and provide corresponding strategies.On the supply side,with the cost of imported and domestic gas further reduced,more preferable gas importing,stronger winter gas storage capacity,continuous growth of domestic gas and the establishment of Pipe China promote our energy independence.On the demand side,gas heating(4Q higher consumption of gas)and industrial fuel contribute to the growth of gas demand.The prediction of continuous rapid growth of gas demand in 2021 and the expanded import of LNG makes it necessary to implement foreign purchase and infrastructure construction in advance to ensure smooth winter gas market and healthy development of natural gas markets.In addition,price risk control is to be strengthened to promote the development of city gas industry.