城轨车辆门密封胶条寿命多模型组合预测

Application and Research of Integrated Operator in Prediction on Life Time for Sealant Strip of Urban Rail Vehicle Doors

针对城轨车辆门密封胶条提前更换而导致未全寿命使用的问题,对密封胶条寿命进行多模型组合预测,为密封胶条维护提供寿命指标.基于密封胶条样本的拉断伸长率检测数据,构建单项预测模型,用最优权数法进行组合预测;提出一种权数变换方法解决最优权数法计算权数为负值的问题;以平均绝对误差率作为模型精度评价指标,单项预测模型精度分别为1.82%~13.41%,最优权数改进方法构建的组合模型精度范围为1.82%~3.14%,组合模型精度显著提高.由组合模型预测得到密封胶条使用寿命为172个月.

In order to solve the problem that the sealant strip of urban rail vehicle door is replaced in advance,which causes the problem that the sealant strip is not used in full life,a multi-model combination prediction is carried out to provide the life index for the maintenance of sealant strip.Based on the test data of elongation at break of sealant samples,a single prediction model is constructed,and the optimal weight method was used for combination prediction.At the same time,a weight transformation method is proposed to solve the problem that the weight of the optimal weight method is negative.Taking the mean absolute percentage error(MAPE)as the model accuracy evaluation index,the accuracy of single prediction model is 1.82%~13.41%,and the accuracy range of the combined model constructed by the improved optimal weight method is 1.82%~3.14%,which significantly improves the accuracy of the combined model.The service life of sealant strip by the combined model is predicted to be 172 months.