时间差异条件下的高速公路交通事故致因分析

Analysis of highway traffic accidents causes under time differences

为探究高速公路交通事故各影响因素间的内在关联,揭示交通事故发生机理,保障高速公路行车安全,基于河北省2018年高速公路事故数据集,应用考虑定向约束的Apriori算法,分别对工作日和休息日的高速公路交通事故进行了关联规则挖掘,得到3类隐藏规则.研究表明:无论是工作日或休息日,事故通常发生在常规外部条件下,但不良道路条件和不利外界环境的耦合作用更容易引发事故;工作日和休息日导致重大事故和一般事故的形态存在一定差异;采用改进Apriori算法的准确度较原始算法提升了92.8%,证实了改进算法适用于高速公路风险因子的识别,有助于提升该领域的交通安全.

To explore the intrinsic association between the influencing factors of highway traffic accidents,reveal the mechanism of traffic accidents and ensure the safety of highway traffic,based on the 2018 highway accident dataset in Hebei Province,the Apriori algorithm considering orientation constraints is applied to study the association rules for highway traffic accidents on weekdays and weekends,and three types of hidden rules are obtained.The study shows that accidents usually occur under normal external conditions,whether on weekdays or weekends,but the coupling effects of poor road conditions and unfavorable external environment are more likely to cause accidents.Meanwhile,the pattern that leads to major crashes and general crashes differs from weekdays to weekends.The accuracy of the improved Apriori algorithm is 92.8%higher than that of the original one,which proves that the improved algorithm with orientation constraints is suitable for identifying highway risk factors and helpful to improve traffic safety in this field.