城市建成环境影响下通勤时间和距离联合建模研究

Joint modeling research of commuting time and distance considering the impacts of urban built environment

为研究城市建成环境对居民日常通勤行为的影响,考虑通勤时间和通勤距离在建模时扰动项之间的相关性,建立似不相关回归模型,从宏观城市形态的角度出发,同时分析城市建成环境对居民通勤时间和通勤距离的影响,并基于2014年中国通勤数据进行实证研究.结果表明:似不相关回归模型比线性回归模型拟合效果更好;城市化率、常住人口、人口密度、GDP、是否有地铁对通勤距离和通勤时间的影响都呈显著的正向影响,土地利用混合度对通勤距离和通勤时间有显著的负效应,而万人拥有公共汽车数仅对通勤时间呈显著的正效应,空间聚集度和人均道路面积分别对通勤距离和通勤时间有显著的负向影响.

To explore the impacts of urban built environment on the commuting behaviors of urban residents,a seemingly unrelated regression model is built considering the correlation between perturbations from the commuting time and commuting distance.From a macro-urban morphology perspective,an analysis of the impact of the built environment on residents’commuting times and distances is carried out,using the 2014 China Commuting Data to conduct an empirical study.The results show that the seemingly unrelated regression model performs better than the linear regression model.And the urbanization rate,permanent resident population,population density,GDP,and metro availability have significant positive impacts on commuting distance and commuting time;while land use mix has significant negative impacts on commuting distance and commuting time.In contrast,the number of buses per 10000 people has a significant positive effect only on commuting time,while spatial agglomeration and road area per capita have a significant negative effect on commuting distance and commuting time respectively.