气候变化对“一带一路”主要地区的影响及其适应技术需求

Climate change impacts on major regions along the Belt and Road and technology need for adaptation

该研究基于“一带一路”地区68个国家提交给《联合国气候变化框架公约》秘书处的国家信息通报、技术需求评估报告等公开文献,系统梳理“一带一路”8个主要区域,即东亚、东南亚、南亚、中亚、西亚、北非、东非和西非的气候变化特征、受到的主要影响以及适应气候变化的技术需求。研究表明,“一带一路”地区普遍面临着以平均气温升高、降水时空变异增强以及极端天气和气候事件增加为特征的气候变化,其中中亚、西亚、北非、西非等地区对全球气候变化的响应更加剧烈,是全球气候变化的热点地区。气候变化已经对“一带一路”主要地区的农业、水资源、生态系统和人类健康等产生了深刻影响。虽然因为温度升高和二氧化碳的肥效作用,气候变化对一些地区(例如中亚)的农业生产有一定积极影响,但是由于温度升高增加了灌溉压力,“一带一路”地区普遍面临着因气候变化导致的粮食安全风险。降水时空变异增加将加大各地区干旱、洪涝等自然灾害的发生频率和风险,东亚、南亚、中亚等依赖冰川融雪的地区,会因冰川萎缩面临较大的水资源压力。农业和水资源是“一带一路”所有主要地区适应气候变化的优先领域,提交技术需求评估(TNA)报告国家中90%都提交了这两个领域的技术需求。其中农业部门的共性优先技术为育种、作物品种改善和灌溉(包括喷灌和滴灌),水资源部门的共性优先技术为雨水收集,海岸带部门的共性优先技术为海堤和护岸以及沿海湿地恢复,监测预警部门的共性技术是预测和预警系统,但是不同地区偏好不同的预测预警系统。发展中国家在开展适应技术开发和转移过程中普遍面临资金与市场、管理与制度、能力建设以及知识产权与技术四个方面的障碍。

Based on the national communications,technology needs assessment and other reports submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change secretariat by 68 countries along the Belt and Road,this study systematically examines characteristics of climate change,major impacts and technology needs for adaptation in the eight major regions along the Belt and Road,namely East Asia,Southeast Asia,South Asia,Central Asia,West Asia,North Africa,East Africa,and West Africa.Studies show that regions along the Belt and Road are generally facing a warming climate,enhanced temporal and spatial variability of precipitation,and increased frequency and magnitude of extreme weather and climate events;with Central Asia,West Asia,North Africa,and West Africa responded violently to global climate change,and have been recognized as the hotspots of climate change.Climate change has had profound and comprehensive impacts on various sectors,including agriculture,water resources,ecosystems,and human health.While rising temperature and the fertilization effect of carbon dioxide can increase the productivity potential of some crops in some regions(e.g.,Central Asia),climate change has posed risks for food security in regions along the Belt and Road due to dramatically increasing irrigation demands driven by warming climate.Increased temporal and spatial variability in precipitation will increase the frequency and risk of climatic disasters such as droughts and floods in various regions,and regions such as East Asia,South Asia,and Central Asia that rely on glacial snowmelt will face greater pressure on water resources due to shrinking glaciers.Agriculture and water resources are priority areas for climate change adaptation in all major regions along the Belt and Road.90%of the countries that submitted TNAs prioritized their technology needs for adaptation in the two areas.Common priority technologies in the agriculture sector are breeding and improvement of crop varieties,and irrigation(including sprinkler and drip irrigation),in the water resources sector rainwater harvesting,in the coastal zone sector seawalls and shore protection,and coastal wetland restoration,and in the monitoring sector forecasting and warning systems,although different regions have different preferences for forecasting and early warning systems.Developing countries generally face four barriers to the development and transfer of adaptation technologies:finance and markets,management and institutions,capacity building,and intellectual property rights and technology.