全球视角下美国对华加征关税的福利影响——基于服装业的局部均衡模拟分析

Welfare Impacts of the US Tariff on China from a Global Perspective:Simulation Analysis of Partial Equilibrium Based on Clothing Industry

基于2017年全球服装产品生产与贸易的有关数据,利用可计算局部均衡模型从全球视角实证考察美国加征关税在行业层面的福利影响。结果表明:第一,美国对华服装产品加征关税具有比较显著的贸易破坏效应,但由于贸易偏转效应,中国服装对欧盟、日本等第三方市场的出口将有所增加;第二,在全球化背景下,由于贸易转移效应的存在,加征关税对美国服装产业的救济效果非常有限;第三,美国对中国服装产品加征关税导致美国社会净福利损失要远高于中国社会净福利损失。研究结论对如何应对当前中美贸易摩擦具有一定借鉴意义。

Based on the relevant data of global clothing production and trade in 2017,this paper empirically examines the welfare effects of US tariffs on the industry level from a global perspective by using a computable partial equilibrium model.The simulation results show that:Firstly,the tariff imposed by US on Chinese clothing products has a significant trade disruption effect.However,due to the trade deflection effect,the export of Chinese clothing to EU,Japan and other third-party markets will increase.Secondly,in the context of globalization,due to the existence of trade diversion effect,the relief effect of tariffs on the American clothing industry is very limited.Thirdly,the loss of net social welfare in US is much higher than that in China due to the tariff imposed by the United States on Chinese clothing products.The research of this paper has certain reference significance for China to deal with the current Sino-US trade friction.