粮食规模经营主体结构调整意愿及影响因素——以江苏省为例

Analysis on structure adjustment willingness and influencing factors of grain scale management operations:A case study in Jiangsu Province

粮食结构调整是农业供给侧改革的重要内容。本文基于江苏省粮食规模经营主体调查数据,运用统计分析及二元Logistic模型,从主体特征、生产特征、需求特征等方面,实证检验结构调整意愿及影响因素差异。结果表明:江苏省粮食规模经营仍处于起步阶段,生产能力及社会服务有待提升,结构调整意愿比较明显。大户、家庭农场、合作社、企业对调整意愿的影响依次显著上升。年轻、多样、规模大、租金高及加工能力强的主体更愿意调整结构,田间整治及烘干设施需求比资金技术需求对结构调整的影响更为显著。因此,积极培育新型经营主体、引导要素合理流动、提高粮食加工能力和生产效益、配套农田基础设施等举措有利于粮食安全及乡村振兴战略的实施。

The adjustment of the grain structure is an important part of the structural reform on the agricultural supply side.Based on the survey data of those large-scale grain operation business entities in Jiangsu Province,this paper uses the Binary Logistic Model and statistical analysis to analyze the differences and influencing factors of structural adjustment willingness from the aspects of subject,production and demand characteristics.The results show that large-scale grain operation in Jiangsu Province is still in its early stage,the production capacity and social services need to be improved,and the willingness of structural adjustment is obvious.The influence of big farming households,family farms,cooperatives and enterprises on structural adjustment willingness increased accordingly.The business entities which are young,diverse,large-scale,affording high-rent and with strong processing capacity are more willing to adjust their structure.Among the influencing factors,the impact of demand of land consolidation and drying facilities is stronger than that of capital and technology.Therefore,in order to enhance food security and achieve Rural Revitalization Strategy,some suggestions are put forward.Namely,policies should attend to cultivating new management system,guiding rational flow of factors,improving grain processing capacity and production efficiency,and supporting farmland infrastructure and so on.