从边缘附属到动态整合:政府应急预案与风险管理关系演化及意涵

From Marginal Attachment to Dynamic Integration:The Evolution and Implication of the Relationship between Government Emergency Plan and Risk Management

通过聚焦应急预案与风险管理关系演化及政策意涵,构建二者关系演化模型,可以厘清风险管理与应急预案之间的双向效能激发、现实障碍及优化路径。未来我国应急预案编制与体系建设将呈现出以整合风险管理为主轴的风险管理专门预案和以风险分析为基础的应急响应预案共存的格局。迈向整合风险管理的应急预案编制与体系建设,需要以风险管理的政治优先性、多尺度整合、动态风险沟通、韧性风险管理结构以及政策工具创新为基本路径。

This paper focuses on the evolution and policy implications of the relationship between emergency planning and risk management,and establishes an evolution model of the relationship between them to clarify the two-way efficiency stimulation,realistic obstacles and optimization path between risk management and emergency planning.In the future,the compilation and system construction of emergency plans in China will present a coexistence pattern of specialized risk management plans based on integrated risk management and emergency response plans based on risk analysis.The preparation of emergency plan and system construction towards integrated risk management need to take the political priority of risk management,multi-scale integration,dynamic risk communication,resilient risk management structure and policy tool innovation as the basic path.