产业结构优化对农业经济发展的影响

Influence of Industrial Structure Optimization on Agricultural Economic Development

产业结构优化对农业经济增长的影响是相关学者和专家共同关注的话题。针对这一现象,研究在阐述中部区域产业结构和经济增长现状的基础上,引入泰尔指数和Moore结构变化值两个指标,构建最小二乘法回归模型分析产业结构优化对农业经济的影响,并通过平稳性检验、协整检验和Granger因果关系检验3个方法验证模型性能。D(ln Y)和D(M)以及D(ln Y)和D(TL) 4个变量经一阶处理后均没有单位根,时间变量为平稳序列。模型的拟合度极高,为98%,变量的P值非常显著。利用模型对30组数据进行分析可以看出,产业结构合理化和经济发展互为因果关系,产业结构高级化和经济发展也互为因果关系。产业结构合理化能够促进农业经济的增长,且经济增长越快,产业结构越合理。

Impact of industrial organization optimization on agricultural economic growth is a topic of common concern of relevant scholars and experts. In view of this phenomenon,based on analysis of current situation of industrial structure and economic growth in the central region,two indicators of Theil index and Moore structure change value were introduced,the least square regression model was constructed to analyze impact of industrial structure optimization on agricultural economy. Model performance was verified through three major methods: stationarity test,cointegration test and Granger causality test. D(LnY) and D(M),D(LnY) and D(TL) had no unit roots after first-order treatment,and time variables were stationary. Rationalization of industrial structure and economic development were mutually causal,and upgrading of industrial structure and economic development were also causality. Their regression equations and resolvable coefficients of model were 97% and 98% respectively.