基于可能性理论扩展灰关联的目标威胁评估

Target Threat Assessment Based on Extended Grey Correlation with Possibility Theory

为了考虑目标探测信息在某一时间段的变化趋势对目标威胁评估的影响,提出了一种新的基于可能性理论扩展灰关联的空中目标动态威胁评估算法。首先,确定了评估指标体系,并引入可能性分布表征其中的不确定因素;然后,构造目标可能性均值矩阵和可能性标准差威胁决策矩阵,以反映目标变化趋势对目标威胁度的影响,从而获得目标威胁评估结果;最后,通过仿真算例表明,该算法评估结果合理,可满足空中目标动态威胁评估的需求。

To consider the influence of the changing trend of the target detection information in a certain period on the target threat assessment,a dynamic threat assessment algorithm for aerial targets based on the extended grey correlation with possibility theory is proposed.Firstly,the assessment index system is established,and the possibility distribution is used to represent the uncertain factors.Then,the possibility mean matrix and the possibility standard deviation threat decision matrix are constructed to reflect the influence of the target’s changing trend on the degree of the target threat.Thus,the result of the target threat assessment is obtained.Finally,the simulation case shows that the algorithm’s assessment result is reasonable,and it can meet the requirement of the dynamic threat assessment for aerial targets.