从国际视角看中国信用评级

China’s Credit Rating Industry——an International Comparison

本文分析了2005—2019年我国公司信用债主体评级特征,并与国际评级做了对比。从分布而言,我国信用评级偏高,发行人付费模式下的信用评级随时间推移明显变高;从评级变动而言,我国评级上调多于下调,而且低评级多向高评级迁移。就评级与违约的关系而言,我国评级对违约的预警能力较差,多存在违约前断崖式下调的现象;从实际违约率而言,相较于S&P评级,我国信用评级明显低估了违约风险。

This article analyzes China’s corporate credit bond ratings from 2005 to the end of 2019 and compares them with international ratings.China’s credit ratings are relatively high,particularly those that are awarded under the model of issuers paying for their rating.China’s ratings are more frequently upgraded than downgraded and the ratings have a very limited correlation to credit defaults.China’s ratings have poor early warning capabilities ahead of defaults,and there often is a phenomenon of sharp downward adjustments immediately before a default.Compared with S&P’s ratings,China’s credit ratings have significantly underestimated the risk of default.