多因素耦合作用下的车辆群事故伤害程度估计

Estimation of Accident Injury Severity of Vehicle Groups Considering Multi-factor Coupling

为了深入探究多因素耦合作用下公路车辆群事故伤害影响因素,提取美国得克萨斯州2016年的公路碰撞数据,从4个方面(道路特性、驾驶员特性、车辆特征、环境因素)选择21个备选因素,构建考虑异质性的公路车辆群事故随机参数Logit模型,同时利用边际效应公式计算每个因素对碰撞伤害程度大小的影响。结果表明:驾驶员性别、年龄、是否都使用安全带、安全气囊起爆与否等15个单因素,以及都系安全带-安全气囊起爆、老年驾驶员-大货车等4个耦合因素均与公路车辆群事故伤害程度显著相关,且"道路限速值>100 km/h"与"安全气囊起爆与否"这2个参数对公路车辆群事故伤害程度的影响具有差异性。研究结果对降低公路车辆群事故严重程度有一定指导作用。

In order to explore the influencing factors and their heterogenous impacts on vehicle groups accident under the multi-factor coupling effect,a random parameter logit model was developed based on 21 types of alternative factors in 4 aspects( road characteristics,driver characteristics,vehicle characteristics,environmental factors) from the road crash data of Texas in 2016. And the marginal effect formula was used to measure the impact of each factor on the level of collision damage. The model estimation results showed that 15 types of single factors such as driver gender,age,the use of seat belts,the release of airbags,and 4 coupling factors such as all seat belts-airbag initiation,elderly drivers-large trucks were significantly related to the degree of road vehicle accident injury;road speed limited >100 km/h,and the release of airbags had differences in the degree of injury from different accidents. The research results could have a certain guiding role in reducing the severity of highway multi-vehicle accidents.