基于改进FMECA的动车组牵引传动系统危害度分析

Criticality Analysis of EMU Traction Drive System Based on Improved FMECA

针对传统故障模式影响及危害度分析(FMECA)方法主观性强的问题,提出一种基于模糊综合评判和D-S证据理论相结合的改进FMECA方法。该方法首先利用高斯隶属度函数计算专家评估结果的基本概率分配,克服传统方法在定量分析中的不足;其次针对不同专家的评估结果,应用基于矩阵合成的D-S证据理论融合算法,实现专家间评估结果的有效融合;并运用层次分析法确定影响因素的权重,进而求得各故障模式的危害度。最后以动车组牵引传动系统为例进行该系统危害度分析,结果表明:系统故障模式的危害度评估结果符合实际情况。与传统方法相比,该方法在一定程度上提高了评估结果的客观性,为牵引传动系统结构优化和维修决策方案的制订提供有价值的参考。

Aiming at the problem of strong subjectivity of traditional failure mode impact and criticality analysis(FMECA),an improved FMECA method based on the combination of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and D-S evidence theory is proposed.First⁃ly,Gauss membership function is used to calculate the basic probability distribution of expert evaluation results,so as to overcome the shortcomings of traditional methods in quantitative analysis.Secondly,according to the evaluation results of different ex⁃perts,the DS evidence theory fusion algorithm based on matrix synthesis is applied to realize the effective fusion of evaluation re⁃sults among experts.Then,the weight calculation of AHP is introduced to get the failure mode criticality.Finally,taking the EMU traction drive system as an example,the results show that failure mode criticality obtained by this method are in line with the actual situation,and compared with the traditional methods,the objectivity of the assessment results can be improved to a cer⁃tain extent by using this method,which provides valuable reference for the structural optimization and the formulation of mainte⁃nance measures of traction drive system.