我国不同规模奶牛养殖成本效益及影响因素研究

Study on the cost-effectiveness and influencing factors of dairy cow breeding of different scale in China

奶牛养殖降本提质增效是实现我国奶业振兴目标的关键。本研究通过比较分析2010—2018年期间不同规模奶牛养殖成本和效益差异,并运用多元回归法探究影响不同规模奶牛养殖效益的根本因素。结果表明:不同规模奶牛养殖的饲料成本、人工成本和固定资产折旧整体上均呈现增长趋势,且饲料成本占比最大,大规模养殖的规模经济效益并未凸显;各成本项目对不同规模奶牛养殖净利润都具有显著影响,但中规模和大规模养殖利润的关键影响因素是固定资产折旧,小规模则是人工成本。从影响程度来看,各因素对中规模养殖利润的影响最为突出,对大规模的影响程度最小。基于此,提出合理调整饲料配方、降低奶牛饲料成本,积极引导适度规模、努力发展家庭牧场,依据不同奶牛养殖规模、采取不同的降本增效措施的建议,以促进我国奶牛养殖竞争力提升。

The cost reduction and efficiency promotion of dairy cow breeding is the key to achieve the goal of revitalizing dairy industry in China. In this study, the differences in the cost and benefit of dairy cow farming of different scales during the period 2010-2018 were compared and analyzed, and the fundamental factors affecting dairy cow farming benefit of different scales were explored by multiple regression method. The results showed that the feed cost, labor cost and fixed asset depreciation of dairy cattle with different scales showed an increasing trend on the whole, the rate of feed cost was the largest, and the economic benefits of large-scale dairy cattle breeding are not outstanding. Each cost item had a significant impact on the net profit of different scale dairy farming. However, the key influencing factor for the profit of medium-scale and large-scale was the depreciation of fixed assets, while the labor cost was the key factor for small scale dairy farming. From the perspective of influence degree, each factor had the most prominent influence on the profit of medium-scale farming, and the least influence on large-scale farming. Based on this, suggestions were proposed, induding reasonable adjustment of feed formula to reduce feed cost of dairy cows;actively guiding the appropriate scale and striving to develop family ranch;different measures should be taken to reduce costs and increase efficiency according to different scale of dairy farming, so as to promote the competitiveness of dairy cattle breeding in China.